The Legal Amazon could generate around US$ 320 billion in revenue from carbon markets over the next 30 years, according to projections presented in an industry-backed report. The estimate is linked to Brazil’s newly regulated carbon market framework, established by Law 15,042/2024, which created the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE) based on a cap-and-trade model. Under this system, regulated emitters face emission limits and can comply in part by purchasing carbon credits, each representing the reduction or removal of one tonne of CO₂ equivalent. In this context, the Amazon region stands out as one of the most promising global suppliers of credits because its forests naturally remove CO₂ from the atmosphere.
The US$ 320 billion figure assumes a minimum price of US$ 20 per tonne of CO₂e. At that level, the Legal Amazon could account for roughly 16 gigatonnes of CO₂ captured over three decades, turning conservation and restoration into a high-value economic activity. The report argues this price floor is conservative compared to mature markets such as the European Union, where carbon prices have exceeded €100 per tonne in recent years, which would further raise the region’s revenue potential if global demand for forest-based credits expands.
Beyond direct revenue, the study associates the expansion of carbon markets with broader socioeconomic effects in the region. The expectation is that a sustainable development pathway tied to carbon monetization could increase Amazon carbon stocks by 19%, create about 312,000 jobs, and add roughly R$ 40 billion to regional GDP by 2050. The underlying logic is that pricing the environmental service provided by a standing forest creates financial incentives to curb deforestation, scale low-carbon activities, and attract investment into sustainable local value chains.
Overall, the projection reframes the Legal Amazon not only as an environmental cornerstone but also as a strategic economic asset in Brazil’s energy transition. If the regulatory framework ensures credibility, traceability, and legal certainty, the region may convert part of the climatic value it already delivers to the world into tangible revenue capable of funding local development, green infrastructure, and new forest economies—while also strengthening Brazil’s national decarbonization goals.
Photo: Canva
